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11/06 16:59 CST Miami is ranked No. 1, but still a touchdown underdog at No. 4
Notre Dame. And this is a rarity
Miami is ranked No. 1, but still a touchdown underdog at No. 4 Notre Dame. And
this is a rarity
By TIM REYNOLDS
AP Sports Writer
SOUTH BEND, Ind. (AP) --- Imagine this: The No. 1 team in the country wins ---
and it's considered a big upset.
It could happen.
A rarity awaits on Saturday night, when No. 1 Miami (8-0, No. 1 College
Football Playoff ranking) visits No. 4 Notre Dame (7-1, No. 11 CFP). The
Fighting Irish are more than a touchdown favorite at most sportsbooks after the
injury to star Miami wide receiver Malachi Toney in what could mark the first
time in 12 years that the AP No. 1 was that large of an underdog.
The most recent instance of an AP No. 1-ranked team being an underdog in a
regular-season game by at least seven points is believed to have come in 2014,
when Mississippi State (which featured quarterback Dak Prescott, now of the
Dallas Cowboys) was a touchdown underdog to then-No. 4 Alabama (which featured
running back Derrick Henry, now of the Baltimore Ravens). Mississippi State
lost that game, 25-20.
Clemson was ranked No. 1 for the national title game against Alabama on Jan.
11, 2016, but a 6.5-point underdog.
"Toney's a big part of the offense," DraftKings Director of Sports Operations
Johnny Avello said Friday. "You want to look at the offensive production and
for that team, he's half of it. He's a big deal. From a betting perspective,
sometimes these injuries happen and the team rallies around that. ... And
sometimes, the line gets a little more carried away than it should."
Avello said he wouldn't be shocked if the line dipped below seven points by
kickoff Saturday night.
"I don't think the general public is going to just say, ?OK, this is a gimme
for Notre Dame,'" Avello said.
It's hardly unprecedented for a No. 1 team to be an underdog; it has happened
twice already this season. Ohio State was a 2.5-point underdog when it lost to
Texas, and Georgia --- which originally was favored --- ended up as a 2.5-point
underdog when it beat Alabama. Both of those games were on the road, like this
one is for No. 1 Miami.
What makes this one different is the actual size of the point spread. Miami
could end up as the biggest top-ranked underdog in nearly 14 years --- going
back to when No. 1 Notre Dame was a 10-point underdog to Alabama in the
national championship game on Jan. 7, 2013.
Alabama wound up winning that game, 42-14.
Joey Feazel, head of football at Caesars Sportsbook, also thinks the line could
dip below seven points by game time. As of Friday afternoon, Caesars had 58% of
bettors taking the Notre Dame moneyline, but 73% of bettors taking Miami with
the spread.
"I think it's a little high on Notre Dame right now," Feazel said.
Toney's injury also affected the betting lines in the Heisman Trophy race. He
was one of the favorites before the injury; now with him expected to be out
until December, Toney is off most Heisman boards --- with Miami quarterback
Darian Mensah (+175) a slight underdog to Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith
(+160) according to Caesars.
"If Mensah is able to get this win, in really the best game Miami has on its
schedule, it's going to be really hard to kind of take that Heisman Trophy away
from him," Feazel said.
___
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